USD · high impact
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of U.S. purchasing and supply executives conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, measuring the direction of manufacturing activity. It is one of the most closely watched U.S. economic indicators because it is timely and historically correlates well with broader GDP trends, making it a key input for dollar positioning. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
What past releases show (17 releases)
When the actual came in above forecast
- US30: up 6 of 8 times in the first 15 min, average +25.7 pts
- EURUSD: up 6 of 8 times in the first 15 min, average +8.6 pips
- GBPUSD: up 6 of 8 times in the first 15 min, average +11.1 pips
- USDJPY: up 3 of 8 times in the first 15 min, average -4.8 pips
When the actual came in below forecast
- US30: up 4 of 6 times in the first 15 min, average +16.4 pts
- EURUSD: up 2 of 6 times in the first 15 min, average -1.5 pips
- GBPUSD: up 1 of 6 times in the first 15 min, average -5.1 pips
- USDJPY: up 2 of 6 times in the first 15 min, average +1.9 pips
Past data, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Release history
| Date (GMT) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | US30 15m / 60m | EURUSD 15m / 60m | GBPUSD 15m / 60m | USDJPY 15m / 60m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 14:00 | 54.5 | 56 | 54.6 | -108 pts / -134 pts | -8.2 pips / -29.7 pips | -10.2 pips / -23.4 pips | +16.9 pips / -19.4 pips |
| 2026-09-01 14:00 | 54.6 | 55.2 | 55.6 | +129 pts / +54.0 pts | +6.3 pips / -4.7 pips | +9.2 pips / -3.4 pips | -5.2 pips / +3.8 pips |
| 2026-08-03 14:00 | 55.6 | 53 | 53.3 | +68.5 pts / -77.5 pts | -11.5 pips / -13.8 pips | -8.1 pips / -15.7 pips | +15.6 pips / +10.0 pips |
| 2026-07-01 14:00 | 53.3 | — | 54 | +171 pts / +181 pts | +1.9 pips / -2.6 pips | +9.5 pips / +13.6 pips | -3.0 pips / -1.5 pips |
| 2026-06-01 14:00 | 54 | 50.3 | 52.7 | -29.0 pts / -136 pts | +5.8 pips / +9.2 pips | +9.9 pips / +24.5 pips | -6.1 pips / -1.8 pips |
| 2026-05-01 14:00 | 52.7 | 49.8 | 52.7 | +14.0 pts / -149 pts | +16.8 pips / +5.5 pips | +14.5 pips / -13.0 pips | -5.1 pips / +14.8 pips |
| 2026-04-01 14:00 | 52.7 | 52.2 | 52.4 | -35.0 pts / +129 pts | +3.0 pips / +15.7 pips | +7.4 pips / +27.0 pips | +0.7 pips / -17.7 pips |
| 2026-03-02 15:00 | 52.4 | 53 | 52.6 | +63.5 pts / +88.5 pts | -1.2 pips / +9.6 pips | -4.5 pips / +18.7 pips | -1.5 pips / -24.9 pips |
| 2026-02-02 15:00 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 47.9 | +39.0 pts / +25.0 pts | +11.7 pips / +14.1 pips | +18.1 pips / +24.9 pips | -13.2 pips / -16.2 pips |
| 2026-01-05 15:00 | 47.9 | — | 48.2 | +35.0 pts / +88.5 pts | +5.5 pips / +10.4 pips | +4.9 pips / +22.3 pips | -8.2 pips / -25.4 pips |
| 2025-12-01 15:00 | 48.2 | 49.3 | 48.7 | -41.5 pts / +9.5 pts | -1.3 pips / -5.9 pips | -15.4 pips / -25.0 pips | +6.8 pips / +18.9 pips |
| 2025-11-03 15:00 | 48.7 | 50 | 49.1 | +12.0 pts / +54.0 pts | +0.3 pips / +5.8 pips | -2.4 pips / +1.7 pips | -0.3 pips / +3.4 pips |
| 2025-10-01 14:00 | 49.1 | — | 48.7 | +72.0 pts / +106 pts | -10.9 pips / -6.4 pips | -17.9 pips / -9.1 pips | +27.7 pips / +14.0 pips |
| 2025-09-02 14:00 | 48.7 | 46.8 | 48 | +45.0 pts / -35.5 pts | +28.3 pips / +12.5 pips | +25.1 pips / +5.9 pips | -33.7 pips / -30.9 pips |
| 2025-08-01 14:00 | 48 | 48.9 | 49 | +43.5 pts / +75.0 pts | -4.7 pips / -5.5 pips | -7.2 pips / -7.4 pips | -5.1 pips / -4.7 pips |
| 2025-07-01 14:00 | 49 | 47.3 | 48.5 | +89.0 pts / +191 pts | -7.5 pips / -19.8 pips | -2.1 pips / -7.1 pips | +32.0 pips / +39.7 pips |
| 2025-06-02 14:00 | 48.5 | 47 | 48.7 | +14.2 pts / +173 pts | +22.1 pips / +15.5 pips | +23.8 pips / +24.7 pips | -28.9 pips / -23.2 pips |